PMs @ Noon: To Boldly Go... Estimating Projects & Tasks When There Isn't a Baseline
Session Description:
Project managers are often asked to provide estimates before all the information is known, the requirements are fully defined, or historical data is available. While established baselines and past project experience can make estimating easier, many projects involve new technologies, unique business challenges, changing requirements, or first-of-their-kind initiatives where no reliable comparison exists.
In this practical session, we'll explore techniques for estimating projects and tasks when uncertainty is high and data is limited. Attendees will learn how to use expert judgment, assumptions, ranges, risk-based thinking, and progressive elaboration to develop estimates that are realistic, defensible, and useful for decision-making. Whether you're managing innovative projects, organizational change initiatives, or simply dealing with incomplete information, you'll leave with tools to improve estimating confidence and communicate uncertainty effectively.
What You Can Expect to Learn:
- Identify practical estimating techniques that can be used when historical data and established baselines are unavailable.
- Learn how to develop estimate ranges and communicate uncertainty in a way that supports informed decision-making.
- Understand how risk, assumptions, and unknowns influence estimate accuracy and project outcomes.
- Explore methods for refining estimates as information becomes available throughout the project lifecycle.
- Recognize common estimating biases and pitfalls that can lead to unrealistic expectations and commitments.
About the Speaker:
Dan Rose, GISP, PMP, has nearly 30 years of experience in information technology, geographic information systems (GIS), public safety, utilities, and project management. Throughout his career, he has led complex technology and GIS initiatives for local, county, state, and federal government agencies, utilities, public safety organizations, educational institutions, and private-sector clients, frequently working in environments where requirements were evolving, assumptions were changing, and reliable historical data was limited.
As a GIS Project Manager currently with GeoComm, Inc., Dan helps organizations across the United States plan and deliver GIS, NG9-1-1, indoor mapping, and data modernization projects. He holds both the Project Management Professional (PMP) and Geographic Information Systems Professional (GISP) certifications and is known for bringing practical, real-world approaches to planning, estimation, risk management, stakeholder engagement, and project delivery.
Drawing on nearly three decades of experience estimating and managing projects ranging from routine enhancements to first-of-their-kind initiatives, Dan enjoys helping project managers navigate uncertainty, communicate assumptions effectively, and develop credible estimates when there isn't a historical baseline to follow.
Talent Triangle PDUs:
| Ways of Working: | 0.75 |
| Power Skills: | 0.25 |
| Business Acumen: | 0 |
| Total PDUs: | 1 |
This allocation reflects the session's primary focus on project planning, estimation, forecasting, and risk management, with a secondary emphasis on communicating uncertainty and influencing stakeholder expectations.
Event Details:
| Event ID: | 20260811-01 |
| When: | Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (7:30 AM - 8:30 AM) |
| Where: | Online/Virtual - meeting link will be provided with registration |
